Brazil will be one of the first economies to recover from the economic slump. The OECD predicts 4% economic growth for the emerging giant in 2010. The confidence of the countrys President Lula da Silva, who during his two terms of office has transformed the countrys economy, has barely taken a denting. Brazil is emerging from the crisis, and next year we are going to have surprising growth, he announced in July.
State oil company Petrobras discovered vast deepwater reserves that it is developing with a five-year, $174 billion investment program. The goal is to double Brazil’s production, to 3.5 million barrels a day, by 2012, making the country a top oil exporter, in line with many Middle Eastern countries such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, increasing the wealth in the country immensely. The United States has agreed to provide as much as $10 billion in financing to go towards the development of these oil fields. Brazil will reap tremendous benefits from this oil exploration and avoid over-reliance on oil because it made its discoveries after its economy had diversified and industrialised.
The growing middle classes and consequent increasing domestic consumption of the BRIC nations is creating greater demand for exports. While US consumers continue to tighten their purse strings, Brazil, Russia, India and China will be responsible for around 50% of worldwide export demand.
The 2014 World Cup has resulted in a Government programme of expenditure, in excess of $250 million on roads, airports, power generation and sanitation coupled with a huge spend on tourism that has resulted in international tourists increasing year on year from 1.9 million in 1995, to in excess of 5.2 million in 2008.
The Brazil property market is booming. Mortgage lending around the world as a percentage of GDP is much higher than in Brazil where it is only 2.5%. In the US it accounts for 68% with Germany and Spain at 45% and other developing nations such as Mexico and Chile at 11% and 20% respectively. Although there was a worldwide economic crisis mortgage lending in Brazil rose 41% last year, while other countries lending contracted. Caixa Economica Federal lent 19 Billion Reais in 2008 and expects to lend 26 billion Reais in 2009. This compared to 5 billion Reais in 2005.
Brazil has a huge domestic market resulting in its huge export industry only representing 12% of its $1.5 trillion economy. This is due to its population of 190 million people and a growing middle class making up more than half of the population. This has resulted in Brazilians buying more food, clothing, and household goods. Whirlpool (WHR), which has a 40% share of Brazil’s appliance market, has benefited, too. Sales jumped 20% in May and June compared with a year earlier. Even when the tax cut ends in October, sales should remain strong, says Jos A. Drummond Jr., president of Whirlpool Latin America. This has also fueled retail spending at supermarkets such as Grupo Po de Acar, which had a revenue of $8.9 billion in 2008. To cash in on booming sales of fridges, washers, and the like, the company in June paid $422 million for Ponto Frio, an appliance retailer with 458 outlets. “Over the next five years, we’ll see a doubling of sales of durable goods in Brazil,” says Jos Roberto Tambasco, vice-president for operations at Po de Acar.
Leslie Richards is a consultant to Brazil Land Invest and advises the company on property land and Affordable Housing projects in North East Brazil.
